793
WTPZ44 KNHC 240841
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 AM MST WED SEP 24 2025
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NARDA HAS BEEN MOSTLY OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70 TO -85C, FOLLOWING
A BRIEF EYE FEATURE THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE. SINCE THEN, THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UW-CIMSS NOW ANALYZES 22
KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING OUTFLOW RESTRICTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 5.0/90 KT,
WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGED FROM 84 TO 101 KT.
TAKING A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 90 KT.
NARDA IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR 265
DEGREES, AT 11 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY
A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY DAY 3 AS A MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ERODES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL LOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THEN WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT
BEYOND 48 HOURS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH TRENDS IN THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
NARDA WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS AND OVER VERY
WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION, EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DISRUPT THE CYCLONE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. NARDA SHOULD
EMERGE FROM THE HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ON THURSDAY WHILE STILL
OVER WARM WATERS AND SURROUNDED BY MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION, WITH NARDA FORECAST TO
PEAK AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AROUND DAY 3. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE RATHER ABRUPTLY BEYOND DAY 3, WITH NARDA
CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM PRIOR TO DAY 4 WHILE ALSO MOVING INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT, RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5, WITH NARDA EXPECTED TO LOSE
DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW BY DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION
AND MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH A BLEND OF THE HCCA AND FSSE INTENSITY
AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 15.1N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.1N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 15.2N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 15.9N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 16.6N 121.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 17.6N 123.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 19.4N 124.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 21.8N 123.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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