552
WTPZ44 KNHC 241451
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 AM MST WED SEP 24 2025
THE RECENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF NARDA IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CDO
CONTAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C, WITH A CURVED BAND ALSO
NOTED TO THE WEST OF THE CDO. SHIPS GUIDANCE AND UW-CIMSS ARE
CURRENTLY ANALYZING 20-25 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THIS
SHEAR HAS PREVENTED ANY STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IN
FACT, THE STRUCTURE APPEARS SOMEWHAT LESS IMPRESSIVE ON A RECENT
24/1121 UTC F18 SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS. GIVEN THAT THE LATEST
TAFB AND SAB FIXES ARE BOTH T5.0/90 KT, THE 90-KT INTENSITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY WILL BE HELD FOR THIS ADVISORY.
NARDA'S MOTION HASN'T CHANGED, STILL ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR
265 DEGREES AT 11 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 36 H, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS
THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS LIKELY TO SINK SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL ACT TO
ERODE THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO TURN RATHER SHARPLY
TOWARD THE NORTH BY SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT LIES A BIT TO THE LEFT, OR WEST,
OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY AT DAYS 3-5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE TVCE AND GFEX DURING THAT PERIOD, WHICH LIE IN
BETWEEN THE EASTERN HCCA SOLUTION AND THE WESTERN GOOGLE DEEP MIND
SOLUTION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN DECREASE TO MODERATE
MAGNITUDES BY THURSDAY WHILE NARDA REMAINS OVER WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME WEAKENING THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
SOME RESTRENGTHENING BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. NARDA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS AND CROSS THE 26C SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM BY SATURDAY WHILE REACHING A SOMEWHAT DRIER
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE SAME TIME. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS RAPID
WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD
BEYOND DAY 3 AS TO HOW QUICKLY NARDA GAINS LATITUDE DURING THE
3-5 DAY PERIOD. THESE TRACK DIFFERENCES COULD ALSO AFFECT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST (HOW QUICKLY NARDA WEAKENS DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 15.1N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.1N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 15.8N 118.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 16.2N 120.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 17.0N 122.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 19.7N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 21.8N 123.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER HAGEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page