630
WTPZ44 KNHC 250251
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 PM MST WED SEP 24 2025
NARDA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DUE TO PERSISTENT 20–25 KT NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXPANDING BURST OF VERY COLD CONVECTION, WITH CLOUD TOPS TO –90 C
REDEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER AND A CURVED BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE LOWER, RANGING BETWEEN T4.0/65 KT AND T4.5/77 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE 57–68 KT
RANGE. IN LIGHT OF THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE PRESENTATION DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY LOWERED SLIGHTLY, TO
80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTIONS IS TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 270/9 KT, STEERED BY
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO ITS NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH ABOUT
48 H. BETWEEN 48 AND 60 H, NARDA SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM 60 TO 72 H. BEYOND 72 H, A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST AS A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA AND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. BY DAYS 4 AND 5, NARDA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, ALIGNING CLOSELY
WITH MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
VERTICAL SHEAR PERSISTS. BY FRIDAY, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO EASE TO
MORE MODERATE LEVELS WHILE NARDA REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITH A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RE-STRENGTHENING. THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN 60 AND 72 H MAY ALSO KEEP THE SYSTEM
OVER WARMER WATERS A LITTLE LONGER, POTENTIALLY DELAYING WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, BY 72–96 H, NARDA IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS
AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5 OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER PORTION OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 15.1N 113.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.4N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 15.7N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 16.3N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 16.9N 122.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.4N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 21.8N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page