790
WTNT43 KNHC 250253
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1100 PM AST WED SEP 24 2025
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HUMBERTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME RUDIMENTARY CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES ARE EVIDENT BUT THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE RATHER FRAGMENTED
AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO THE
OUTFLOW FROM DISTURBANCE 94L LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A RECENTLY
RECEIVED SCATTEROMETER PASS.
THE STORM CENTER IS NOT YET VERY WELL-DEFINED SO THE INITIAL MOTION
IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/10 KT. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HUMBERTO
SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA.
THE STEERING SCENARIO FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME
MORE COMPLICATED IN 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE
DEVELOPING SYSTEM 94L TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LIKELY COMPLICATIONS IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE STEERING FLOW, THERE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RELAXATION IN WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER HUMBERTO IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS, ALONG
WITH VERY WARM OCEAN WATERS AND A MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR MASS, SHOULD
LEAD TO STRENGTHENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BECOME A HURRICANE
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THEN STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIMPLE AND CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS, INCLUDING THE LATEST FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 20.7N 55.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.4N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 21.9N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 22.4N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 22.9N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 23.4N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 24.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 26.3N 66.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 30.1N 68.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
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