688
WTNT43 KNHC 250839
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
500 AM AST THU SEP 25 2025
HUMBERTO IS STILL A SHEAR TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING. DEEP
CONVECTION IS WRAPPED AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE HELD STEADY THIS CYCLE, RANGING FROM 33 TO 41
KTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT. HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM TO 94L, THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
WEST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW HUMBERTO MOVING AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND LOCATION AT WHICH THE STORM WILL MAKE THAT TURN. THE GFS AND
UKMET SHOW A MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER EAST TRACK WHILE THE ECMWF
PREDICTS A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER AND A BIT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION,
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, DESPITE THE STRONG-TO-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WHEN
THE WESTERLY SHEAR RELAXES OVER THE STORM IN 2-3 DAYS, MORE
SIGNIFICATION INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE WARM OCEAN
WATERS. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS HUMBERTO WILL REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST,
WHICH STILL LIES NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 21.2N 56.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 21.7N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 22.1N 57.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 22.6N 58.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 23.0N 59.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 23.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 24.3N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 26.7N 66.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 30.6N 69.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
FORECASTER BUCCI
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