846
WTPZ44 KNHC 251440
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2025
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSR2 MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATE THAT NARDA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A
WELL-DEVELOPED CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER
FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND A SMALL -81C CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO). THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77
AND 90 KT, RESPECTIVELY, AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING JUST UNDER 80 KT. AS A COMPROMISE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
NARDA SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM OCEANIC SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHILE
THE PERSISTENT, MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DIMINISHES. THEREFORE,
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND NARDA COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. AFTERWARD, NARDA IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS WHILE MOVING INTO MORE
STABLE/DRIER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. ACCORDINGLY,
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN AND DECAY-SHIPS
STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
NARDA IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, OR
285/13 KT, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 36
HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARD, A CUT-OFF MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW SITUATED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT, FORCING NARDA TO SLOW IN
FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE CYCLONE SHOULD COMMENCE A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN
RESPONSE TO A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST
COAST OFFSHORE WATERS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE
HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID AND THE GDM FNV3 ENSEMBLE MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 16.1N 116.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.3N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.8N 121.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 17.3N 123.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 18.0N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 18.9N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 19.9N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 22.0N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 23.3N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER ROBERTS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page