828
WTPZ44 KNHC 252035
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2025
A FORTUITOUS 1329 UTC SAR RCM-1 NRCS IMAGE REVEALED A 15 NM
SYMMETRIC EYE BENEATH A SMALL CDO AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED
BAND LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THIS
AFTERNOON'S METOP-B SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THAT THE SUSTAINED
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT
AND IS BASED ON THE VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.
THERE'S STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NARDA TO STRENGTHEN
SOME DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS,
AND FAVORABLE UPPER-WIND CONDITIONS. SUBSEQUENTLY, NARDA
COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, NARDA IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER SSTS WHILE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE/DRIER THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. ACCORDINGLY, WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
AFTER DAY 1 AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN AND
DECAY-SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND SPECIFIES NARDA
BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 4 DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE GENERALLY WESTWARD,
OR 280/14 KT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, CAUSING NARDA TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TEMPORARILY. BY THE 72-HOUR PERIOD, THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TURN IN
RESPONSE TO AN MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST
COAST FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
LIES BETWEEN THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID AND THE GDM FNV3
ENSEMBLE MODEL.
NARDA'S WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1631 UTC METOP-B
SCATTEROMETER PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 16.2N 118.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.4N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.9N 122.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.4N 124.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 19.1N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 20.3N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.1N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/1800Z 23.6N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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