384
WTPZ44 KNHC 260235
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2025
NARDA IS HOLDING STEADY THIS EVENING DESPITE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR
-90 C AND A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTH.
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.0/90
KT FROM SAB AND 4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS RANGE BETWEEN 65 AND 75 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA
AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 280/14 KT, STEERED BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD STEADY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THAT TIME, NARDA SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS IT TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, THEN
NORTHWESTWARD, AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. BEYOND 48 H, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12–24 H
WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE AND THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN A MOIST MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. BY
36–48 H, NARDA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN
INCREASINGLY DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY EARLY SUNDAY
AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 16.4N 119.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 16.8N 121.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 17.3N 123.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 125.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 18.5N 126.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 19.6N 127.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 20.6N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 21.9N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 01/0000Z 23.1N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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