956
WTNT43 KNHC 260241
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1100 PM AST THU SEP 25 2025
HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH WHILE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXHIBITING A GROWING CDO FEATURE
WITH CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR -70 DEG C, ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, WHERE MOST OF THE
LIGHTNING FLASHES ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 55 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.
THE STORM'S FORWARD SPEED IS QUITE SLOW WITH A MOTION ESTIMATE OF
ONLY 320/3 KT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT STRONG AT THIS TIME SINCE
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HUMBERTO IS QUITE WEAK.
GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING WITH TIME AND IN
A FEW DAYS THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SOMEWHAT FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND TURN NORTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF 70 W LONGITUDE. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AFTER HUMBERTO PASSES NORTH OF THE
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.
CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER HUMBERTO
HAS LESSENED, AND THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT SHOW THE SHEAR
INCREASING MUCH THROUGH 72 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE CYCLONE,
AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A MOIST AIR MASS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA, FORECAST WHICH ALSO SHOWS HUMBERTO
INTENSIFYING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 22.2N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 22.4N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 22.7N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 22.9N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 23.4N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 24.3N 63.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 25.4N 65.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 32.6N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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