756
WTPZ44 KNHC 260836
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2025
NARDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. A 0213 UTC GMI
MICROWAVE PASS AND A COINCIDENT SAR RCM-3 NRCS PASS REVEALED A
SYMMETRIC EYE ABOUT 15 N MI WIDE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH INTERMITTENT BURSTS PRODUCING CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR
-90 C NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 0520 UTC
METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICTED A WIND FIELD STRUCTURE SIMILAR TO THAT
SHOWN IN RECENT PASSES OVER THE PAST 24 H. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH 4.5/77
KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE 58–72 KT
RANGE. BASED ON THESE DATA AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST AT 275/13 KT, STEERED BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THAT TIME, NARDA SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW
DOWN AS IT TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTHWESTWARD, AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
WHILE THE MODERATE SHEAR POTENTIALLY EASES AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A MOIST MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE WEEKEND, NARDA WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY EARLY SUNDAY AND BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 16.4N 120.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.8N 122.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.3N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 17.9N 126.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 18.8N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 20.0N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 20.9N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 21.8N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 22.9N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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