228
WTPZ44 KNHC 261436
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2025
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH NARDA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN IN
SATELLITE IMAGES, BUT THERE ARE SOME DRY SLOTS BECOMING APPARENT ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
GENERALLY HELD STEADY, AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 80 KT
USING THAT DATA.
NARDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KT OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC
STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON THE SAME GENERAL PATH FOR ABOUT ANOTHER
DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, A SIGNIFICANT SLOW DOWN AND GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
DUE TO A SERIES OF TROUGHS TO ITS NORTH. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST.
THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH A LITTLE LONGER,
BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY WHEN NARDA IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE 26 C SST ISOTHERM. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS
WEEKEND AND DECAY TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THIS FORECAST IS A TOUCH LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 121.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 17.3N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 17.9N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 18.6N 126.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.6N 127.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 20.7N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 21.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 30/1200Z 21.9N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z 22.8N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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