237
WTNT43 KNHC 261447
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 26 2025
HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A RING OF DEEP, COLD INNER CORE CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND AN EYE THAT HAS RECENTLY EMERGED IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
QUICKLY CLIMBING, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT AND AIDT
ESTIMATES. A RECENT ASCAT-B PASS OVER THE HURRICANE WAS USED TO
UPDATE THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND RADII OF HUMBERTO.
THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING SATELLITE STRUCTURE, ALONG WITH CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS, SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM.
IN FACT, THE LATEST DTOPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HUMBERTO STRENGTHENING BY 30 KT IN THE NEXT 24 H. THUS,
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPLICITLY FORECAST HERE, AND THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED DURING THE FIRST 48-72 H OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODELS AND THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA), ON THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER HUMBERTO, AND
SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN BEYOND 72 H. NOTE THAT AS HUMBERTO GAINS
LATITUDE, THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WHILE THE HURRICANE
CURVES AROUND BERMUDA AT DAYS 4-5.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT.
HUMBERTO SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS THIS
RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD, THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AROUND
THIS FEATURE, TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SHARP RECURVATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 22.3N 57.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 22.5N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 22.9N 59.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 23.3N 61.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 24.1N 63.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 25.3N 65.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 26.8N 66.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 30.6N 68.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 66.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
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