692
WTNT43 KNHC 262037
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
500 PM AST FRI SEP 26 2025
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE HUMBERTO HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE THIRD
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE EYE OF
THE HURRICANE HAS CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND IS SURROUNDED BY A
RING OF DEEP, COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS. BASED ON THESE
DEVELOPMENTS, THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 90-102 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF HUMBERTO IS SET AT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOAA BUOY
41044, LOCATED ABOUT 50 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, HAS REPORTED
FALLING PRESSURES AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
HUMBERTO REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ITS WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE
APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UNLESS AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE FAVORS
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE UPDATED NHC
FORECAST. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS LATER IN THE PERIOD, LIKELY RELATED TO THE
EVOLUTION AND FUTURE PATH OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE. BUT IN
GENERAL, INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE SHOULD
INDUCE AT LEAST GRADUAL WEAKENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE
PEAK WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE, THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND AS HUMBERTO GAINS LATITUDE AND CURVES AROUND BERMUDA AT DAYS
3-5.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD (295/4 KT). A SLOW
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE NEAR-TERM NHC TRACK FORECAST BASED ON
TODAY'S TRENDS, BUT OTHERWISE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A SHARP RECURVATURE OF THE HURRICANE BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC, THOUGH THERE ARE LARGER ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES
NOTED. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST GENERALLY LIES BETWEEN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 22.3N 58.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 22.4N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.8N 60.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 23.4N 62.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 24.6N 64.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 26.0N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 27.7N 67.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 31.7N 68.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 35.5N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
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