670
WTNT34 KNHC 262040
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 74.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS, INCLUDING CAT ISLAND, THE EXUMAS, LONG ISLAND,
RUM CAY, AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, INCLUDING ELEUTHERA, NEW
PROVIDENCE, THE ABACOS, BERRY ISLANDS, AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA, THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
20.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY AND A TROPICAL STORM
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND
WMO HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.
RAINFALL: THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EASTERN CUBA: 8 TO 12 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 16
INCHES POSSIBLE.
BAHAMAS: 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CUBA: 2 TO
4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA, HISPANIOLA, AND JAMAICA.
AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH COASTAL GEORGIA WHICH COULD
CAUSE FLASH, URBAN, AND RIVER FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE, PLEASE SEE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY BOTH THIS SYSTEM AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND, AND SPREAD TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT:
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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