650
WTPZ44 KNHC 262040
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2025
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH NARDA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN IN
SATELLITE IMAGES, BUT THERE IS AN ASYMMETRY TO THE CONVECTION, WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION COLDER THAN -70C OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, WITH A SOMEWHAT SMALLER AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH -30 TO -50C CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DRY AIR
APPEARS TO BE INFILTRATING INTO THE CORE VIA THE WEAKER NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE LATEST CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS
T-4.5/77 KT AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE
HURRICANE FORCE ASCAT-B VECTORS NOTED IN A RECENT 1750 UTC PASS,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT.
NARDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF NARDA WILL CAUSE
THE HURRICANE TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH PULLS IT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS
FORECAST LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE LATEST HCCA CORRECTED
CONSENSUS AND GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE HURRICANE IS OVER 27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BUT IS
FORECAST TO REACH COOLER WATER AND CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT
12 HOURS. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS WEEKEND AND DECAY TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 17.1N 122.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.5N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 18.1N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 18.9N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 19.9N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 20.9N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 22.1N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 23.0N 126.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER HAGEN
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