982
WTNT34 KNHC 262347
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
..DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF HOLGUIN CUBA
...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 75.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS, INCLUDING CAT ISLAND, THE EXUMAS, LONG ISLAND,
RUM CAY, AND SAN SALVADOR
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, INCLUDING ELEUTHERA, NEW
PROVIDENCE, THE ABACOS, BERRY ISLANDS, AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
21.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND AND
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY AND A TROPICAL STORM
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DROPSONDE DATA
FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND
WMO HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.
RAINFALL: THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EASTERN CUBA: 8 TO 12 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 16
INCHES POSSIBLE.
BAHAMAS: 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CUBA: 2 TO
4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA, HISPANIOLA, AND JAMAICA.
AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH COASTAL GEORGIA WHICH COULD
CAUSE FLASH, URBAN, AND RIVER FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE, PLEASE SEE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY BOTH THIS SYSTEM AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND, AND SPREAD TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
FORECASTER BERG
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