065
WTPZ44 KNHC 270236
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2025
NARDA’S OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. A 2108 UTC AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A
WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH A SYMMETRIC EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH 4.5/77 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE 67–79 KT RANGE. BASED ON THESE
DATA AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
NARDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 290/11 KT, WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
SLOW DOWN AS IT TURNS NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AS NARDA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER
ENVIRONMENT, IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AIDS.
NARDA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER 26–27 C WATERS WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE.
BY AROUND 12 H, HOWEVER, IT WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY, AND THEN
DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
LIES NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, THEN TRENDS TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER PORTION OF THE
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 17.3N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 17.8N 124.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 18.5N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 19.4N 126.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 20.5N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 21.2N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/0000Z 21.6N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 22.8N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 24.5N 126.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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