991
WTNT43 KNHC 270238
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 26 2025
HUMBERTO HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. THE EYE
TEMPERATURE HAS INCREASED TO 15C AND THE EYEWALL WHITE RING (-73C)
IS NEARLY CLOSED. A 2137 UTC WSFM-1 HIRES MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED
THAT A CONCENTRIC RING WAS DEVELOPING ABOUT 65 NM FROM THE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 125 KT AND IS CLOSE TO THE UW-CIMSS
ADT OF T6.4 AND ABOVE THE CONSTRAINED SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
ALL INTENSITY CONTRIBUTIONS, LOW SHEAR, WARM WATERS, AND AMPLE
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR HUMBERTO TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. DTOPS GUIDANCE INDICATES
A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RI DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, AND THE LATEST
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT, BRINGING HUMBERTO TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KT SATURDAY NIGHT. BY THE 36 HOUR PERIOD,
HOWEVER, INNER-CORE FLUCTUATIONS AS A RESULT OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES (ERC) ARE POSSIBLE, AND IT'S DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE EXACT
TIMING. IT'S WORTH MENTIONING, HOWEVER, THAT THE UW-CIMSS M-PERC
(MICROWAVE-BASED PROBABILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE)
STATISTICAL MODEL IS PREDICTING A 61 PERCENT OF ONSET. BY MID-NEXT
WEEK, INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SPREADING OVER HUMBERTO SHOULD
INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. AT THE SAME TIME, WHILE IT PASSES
WEST OF BERMUDA, A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST ABOVE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE HCCA CONSENSUS AND THE HAFS/HWRF/HMON HURRICANE MODELS.
HUMBERTO HAS TAKEN A TROCHOIDAL JOG TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK THIS
EVENING, LIKELY DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION EVENT. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR 265/6 KT.
HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN THE EASTERLY STEERING
FLOW PROVIDED BY MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE AND JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD,
OR SUNDAY EVENING, A NORTHWESTWARD TURN WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST WHILE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. BY DAY 4, HUMBERTO SHOULD COMMENCE A
RATHER ABRUPT TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND MOVING OUT OF
NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LOCATED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION LEFT OF TRACK, AND
LIES BETWEEN THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MODEL.
NOAA BUOY 41044, LOCATED ABOUT 38 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, HAS
REPORTED FALLING PRESSURE,SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
GUSTS JUST BELOW HURRICANE-FORCE AND 17 FT SEAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 22.1N 58.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 22.7N 61.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 23.6N 63.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 24.8N 65.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 26.2N 67.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 32.1N 68.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 36.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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