661
WTPZ44 KNHC 270844
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NARDA’S OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT
CLOUD-TOP WARMING HAS BEEN NOTED MORE RECENTLY. A WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BAND CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO),
WHICH CONTAINS CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS –75 C. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 4.5/77
KT, WHILE PEAK OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
JUST UNDER 80 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
NARDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 290/10 KT, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS MORNING. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH, ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, IS FORECAST
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
NARDA REMAINS OVER COOLER WATERS AND MOVES INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT,
IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW-LEVEL FLOW,
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
NARDA IS NOW OVER SSTS BELOW 26 C, AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD INDUCE
A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY LATE SUNDAY, THEN DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 18.2N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 19.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 20.0N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 21.0N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 29/1800Z 21.7N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/0600Z 22.2N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 23.6N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z 25.7N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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