295
WTNT43 KNHC 270845
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
500 AM AST SAT SEP 27 2025
HUMBERTO SEEMS TO HAVE PAUSED ITS METEORIC RISE FOR THE MOMENT.
THE EYE HAS BECOME SMALLER AND MORE DISTORTED BASED ON GOES
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE
THAT THE CONCENTRIC RINGS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAVE
CONTRACTED, INDICATING AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE
MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO DISPLAYED CLASSIC HURRICANE STRUCTURE, WITH
CURVED BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS AND NO SIGNS OF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE LEVELED OFF OVERNIGHT, AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 125 KT, CLOSEST TO THE UW-CIMSS ADT
OF T6.3.
WHILE INTERNAL DYNAMICS MAY HAVE INTERRUPTED HUMBERTO'S
STRENGTHENING, THE HURRICANE STILL HAS ABOUT A DAY OF CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. SOME OF THE
REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW SLIGHT STRENGTHENING, THOUGH MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HUMBERTO WILL HOLD GENERALLY STEADY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY NEXT WEEK, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. AS
HUMBERTO GAINS LATITUDE, A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION IN THE SURFACE WIND
FIELD WILL LIKELY OCCUR WHILE IT PASSES WEST OF BERMUDA.
PHASE-SPACE ANALYSES OF GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS BY DAY 5 SHOW
HUMBERTO AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, OR CLOSE TO ONE. THE LATEST
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION
AND LIES ON THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT-TERM.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 KT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD SLOWLY STEER HUMBERTO TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, THEN TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
DAY 4, AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STEER HUMBERTO NORTHEASTWARD. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS CYCLE AND IS A
LITTLE QUICKER AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IT LIES BETWEEN THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 22.3N 59.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 22.6N 60.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 23.3N 62.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 24.4N 64.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 25.8N 66.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 27.3N 67.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 29.1N 68.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 33.4N 66.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 37.7N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER BUCCI
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