060
WTPZ44 KNHC 271435
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2025
NARDA IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH WITH THE INNER CORE
REMAINING INTACT AND CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND IT ON THE
SOUTH AND EAST SIDES. HOWEVER, DRY SLOTS ARE INCREASING ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, AN INDICATION THAT WEAKENING
COULD COMMENCE SOON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN HELD AT 80 KT,
NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THE HURRICANE HAS JUST CROSSED THE 26 C SST ISOTHERM AND WILL BE
TRACKING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN ADDITION, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS AND STRONGER SHEAR. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS SUPPORT STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING, AND NARDA SHOULD FALL
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AND DECAY TO A
POST-TROPICAL LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN LINE WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE.
AS EXPECTED, NARDA IS SLOWING DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE
RIGHT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE BREAKS DOWN DUE TO A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC. NARDA IS FORECAST TURN NORTHWARD IN A DAY OR
SO, AND CONTINUE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 18.0N 124.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 18.5N 125.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 20.4N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 21.3N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 30/0000Z 21.9N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/1200Z 22.5N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 23.7N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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