773
WTNT43 KNHC 271439
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 27 2025
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, HUMBERTO'S EYE HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME BETTER
DEFINED AND RECENT WSF-M MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 1001 UTC DID NOT
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS. TOGETHER, THESE DATA
SUGGEST HUMBERTO COMPLETED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. RECENT
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM NEAR 120 KT
TO JUST BELOW 130 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 125 KT.
WITH THE PREVIOUS EYEWALL CYCLE COMPLETING, HUMBERTO MAY RESUME
STRENGTHENING TODAY, AND THIS IS STILL INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, UP OR DOWN, WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH WITH ANY ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES, AND THE
PREDICTABILITY OF THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF SUCH EVENTS IS QUITE LOW,
EVEN AS THE SHIPS SECONDARY EYEWALL PREDICTION INDICATES A 2 IN 3
CHANCE THAT ANOTHER ONE WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING,
THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTHENING AND MAINTAINS
HUMBERTO AT OR ABOVE ITS CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT
WEEK, HUMBERTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AND UNDERGO A TRANSFORMATION RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF
ITS SURFACE WIND FIELD AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WHILE
HUMBERTO'S PEAK WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS A RESULT, THE SPREAD OF ITS
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE GROWS IN SIZE.
THE HURRICANE HAS ACCELERATED A LITTLE, WITH A FORWARD SPEED NOW
NEAR 7 KT. HUMBERTO WILL MOVE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE
GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND NOAA AIGEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 22.7N 60.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.1N 61.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 24.1N 63.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 25.5N 65.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.1N 66.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 29.0N 67.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 31.3N 68.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 35.4N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 40.8N 50.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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