642
WTNT34 KNHC 271449
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
..DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 76.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM THE PALM BEACH/MARTIN COUNTY LINE NORTHWARD TO THE
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS, INCLUDING CAT ISLAND, THE EXUMAS, LONG ISLAND,
RUM CAY, AND SAN SALVADOR
* PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, INCLUDING ELEUTHERA, NEW
PROVIDENCE, THE ABACOS, BERRY ISLANDS, ANDROS ISLAND, AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE PALM BEACH/MARTIN COUNTY LINE TO
THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES FROM FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES,
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT AND A HURRICANE
BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER DROPSONDE DATA IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO
HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
BEGINNING LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA ON MONDAY.
RAINFALL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 16
INCHES POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CUBA, AND 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
BAHAMAS. ACROSS HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CUBA, AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA, HISPANIOLA, AND JAMAICA.
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WELL TO THE NORTH FROM COASTAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH, URBAN, AND RIVER FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY BOTH THIS SYSTEM AND HURRICANE HUMBERTO
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND, AND SPREAD TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
FORECASTER REINHART
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