467
WTPZ44 KNHC 272032
TCDEP4
HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2025
AFTER HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH FOR MORE THAN A DAY, NARDA HAS NOW
BEGUN THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
INNER CORE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW NOTABLY
MORE ASYMMETRIC. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 63 TO 77 KT, AND BASED ON THAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 70 KT.
A COMBINATION OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS, DRIER AIR, AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING.
NARDA IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT AND
DECAY TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
NARDA CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AND IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE BREAKS DOWN DUE TO A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TURN NORTHWARD IN A DAY OR
SO, AND CONTINUE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 18.2N 125.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 18.9N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 19.9N 126.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 20.8N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/1800Z 21.4N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 30/0600Z 21.9N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z 22.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z 23.8N 126.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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