868
WTNT43 KNHC 272044
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
500 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2025
HUMBERTO HAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A
VERY SYMMETRIC RING OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70 DEG C NOW
SURROUNDS THE CLEAR EYE OF THE HURRICANE. AT 1800 UTC, THE TAFB
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS WAS 7.0/140 KT. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE
TECHNIQUES LIKE THE UW-CIMSS ADT AND AIDT, AS WELL AS THE SAB
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIX SUPPORTED A SLIGHTLY LOWER INTENSITY, CLOSER
TO 130 KT. HOWEVER, SINCE THAT TIME, CLOUD TOPS AROUND HUMBERTO
HAVE GOTTEN COLDER AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED.
THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 140 KT, MAKING HUMBERTO THE
SECOND CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OF THE 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. INTERNAL FACTORS
LIKE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL LIKELY DOMINATE HUMBERTO'S
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, SO FLUCTUATIONS IN MAXIMUM WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MONDAY, BEFORE HUMBERTO
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHORTLY
THEREAFTER, RESULTING IN A QUICKER DECREASE IN MAXIMUM WINDS BUT AN
EXPANSION OF THE OVERALL WIND FIELD. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE WAS
NEEDED TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASIDE FROM SHOWING A HIGHER
INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST DAY OR TWO.
ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER, BUT WESTWARD, NEAR 9 KT. THE
HURRICANE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
AND ACCELERATES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, PARTICULARLY WITH
REGARD TO HOW FAST HUMBERTO WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN 4 OR 5
DAYS. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ASPECT OF THE FORECAST HAS THEREFORE
DECREASED, EVEN THOUGH LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
GDMI, THE AIGEFS AND HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 22.9N 61.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 62.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 24.7N 64.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 26.2N 66.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.0N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 68.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 32.1N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 36.1N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 42.5N 46.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/BOOKBINDER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page