778
WTPZ44 KNHC 280234
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2025
NARDA HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING AS IT TRACKS OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE T4.0/65 KT, WITH
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS IN THE 54–64 KT RANGE. GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND SHOWN ON SATELLITE SINCE THESE ESTIMATES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT, AND NARDA IS NOW A TROPICAL
STORM.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 335/4 KT. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT, WITH THIS MOTION
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS IT
RESPONDS TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EARLY NEXT WEEK,
NARDA SHOULD BECOME SHALLOW AND INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, LEADING TO A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEFORE
DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS NARDA MOVES FARTHER NORTH INTO
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN 36 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE AROUND DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 18.7N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 19.4N 126.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 20.4N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 30/0000Z 21.6N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 30/1200Z 22.1N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z 22.8N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z 24.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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