357
WTPZ44 KNHC 280854
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NARDA’S CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING TO NEAR
–65 C. A 0439 UTC METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWED PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 45 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 47 TO 57 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 360/4 KT, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
AS NARDA STEADILY LOSES CONVECTION AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW,
IT SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MIDWEEK. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
NARDA HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. ADDITIONAL STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY MONDAY AND DISSIPATE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 19.1N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 19.9N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 20.9N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/1800Z 21.4N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 21.7N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1800Z 22.1N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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