764
WTNT34 KNHC 281749
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
..DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS, INCLUDING CAT ISLAND, THE EXUMAS, LONG ISLAND,
RUM CAY, AND SAN SALVADOR
* PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, INCLUDING ELEUTHERA, NEW
PROVIDENCE, THE ABACOS, BERRY ISLANDS, ANDROS ISLAND, AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE PALM BEACH/MARTIN COUNTY LINE TO
THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WAS
LOCATED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IMELDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH
(11 KM/H). A FASTER MOTION TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THEN TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD,
MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND IMELDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (50 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA IS
998 MB (29.47 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM IMELDA CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO
HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND 6 TO 12 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF
7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH, URBAN, AND
ISOLATED, MINOR RIVER FLOODING. CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
RESULT IN FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?ERO
STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COASTLINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE SURGE OCCURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES...
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE, FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER,
SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE
HUMBERTO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND, AND
SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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