164
WTPZ44 KNHC 282038
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142025
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2025
NARDA HAS BECOME PRACTICALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND WHAT
REMAINS IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED. ASCAT-B DATA VALID AT 1708 UTC
REVEALED A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NARDA'S
CENTER, AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE 35-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS, ECMWF AND REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODELS INDICATE THAT NARDA IS UNLIKELY TO REDEVELOP DEEP
CONVECTION. GIVEN ITS VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND SSTS BELOW 24 DEG C,
THAT FORECAST APPEARS LIKELY TO VERIFY. NARDA SHOULD THEREFORE
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. THE CYCLONE IS
STILL FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, EXCEPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER
INTENSITY BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 20.4N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 21.1N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 29/1800Z 21.6N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 21.8N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z 22.1N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0600Z 22.6N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1800Z 23.2N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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