822
WTNT43 KNHC 282039
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
500 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2025
HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL INNER CORE, SURROUNDED BY A MUCH
LARGER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY, IN WHICH A MOAT OF WARMER CLOUD TOPS
OUTSIDE OF THE INNER EYEWALL HAS BEEN NOTED AT TIMES DURING DAY.
THIS STRUCTURE HAS LIKELY CAUSED HUMBERTO'S INTENSITY TO DECREASE
TODAY, AND THE 125-KT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ON THE HIGH END OF
RECENT OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. HOWEVER, THIS HAS ALSO
CAUSED THE WIND FIELD TO INCREASE, WHICH WAS CONFIRMED BY ASCAT DATA
THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE HUMBERTO THIS EVENING, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE.
OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK,
INTENSITY, OR RADII FORECASTS FOR HUMBERTO. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
MOVE WEST AND THEN NORTH OF BERMUDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS BUT GROWS IN SIZE. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THAT PERIOD IS FAIRLY HIGH, WITH THE MODEL SPREAD BEING SMALLER THAN
NORMAL. THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER AFTER THAT, BUT HUMBERTO
IS SUBSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL FRONTAL LOW
BETWEEN 72 AND 96 H. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT STRENGTH OR FORWARD
SPEED, HUMBERTO WILL BE A STRONG AND LARGE HURRICANE-STRENGTH LOW
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, EVEN AS ITS SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL
LIKELY BECOME ILL DEFINED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NHC FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AT ALL TIMES.
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR HUMBERTO CONTINUE TO BE ITS PRODUCTION OF
DANGEROUS SURF WHICH WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE GROWTH OF ITS WIND FIELD, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AFFECTING BERMUDA
BY LATE TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY LATE
TUESDAY. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BERMUDA. INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HUMBERTO.
2. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS, INCLUDING HIGH SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, ARE AFFECTING BEACHES OF THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN, BAHAMAS, AND BERMUDA. THE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE U.S. EAST COAST ON MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 25.5N 65.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 26.8N 66.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 28.7N 67.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 30.8N 68.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 33.3N 68.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 35.2N 67.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 36.4N 62.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 41.5N 47.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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