855
WTNT43 KNHC 290243
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2025
HUMBERTO REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE
BEEN INVESTIGATING HUMBERTO THIS EVENING AND FOUND THAT THE MAJOR
HURRICANE HAS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS, WITH A DOUBLE WIND MAXIMUM NOTED
IN ALL QUADRANTS. BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW AT 928 MB.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KT IN THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND WEAKENS. AFTER THAT, A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE
HUMBERTO TO TURN SHARPLY AND ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. WHILE THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE CORE OF HUMBERTO WILL MISS BERMUDA,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING THERE
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN HUMBERTO'S OUTER BANDS.
THE INTENSITY OF HUMBERTO WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS, BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT DUE TO
INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
NOW FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY 72 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
DEVELOP FRONTAL FEATURES. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GROW
IN SIZE AS IT GAINS LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF ROUGH SEAS. SEE KEY MESSAGES BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY LATE
TUESDAY, AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND.
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HUMBERTO.
2. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS, INCLUDING HIGH SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, ARE AFFECTING BEACHES OF THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN, BAHAMAS, AND BERMUDA. THE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. ON
MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 26.2N 66.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 27.5N 67.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 29.5N 68.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 31.9N 68.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 34.2N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 35.9N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 37.3N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0000Z 43.5N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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