127
WTNT34 KNHC 290550
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
200 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025
..IMELDA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 77.1W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS, INCLUDING CAT ISLAND, THE EXUMAS, LONG ISLAND,
RUM CAY, AND SAN SALVADOR
* PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, INCLUDING ELEUTHERA, NEW
PROVIDENCE, THE ABACOS, BERRY ISLANDS, ANDROS ISLAND, AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. IMELDA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON TUESDAY, IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SHARPLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY
AND THEN TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND IMELDA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM),
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES)
BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE DROPSONDE DATA.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM IMELDA CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO
HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND 3 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA,
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA, AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING.
AS IMELDA PASSES NEAR BERMUDA, 2 TO 4 INCHES -- 50 TO 100 MM -- OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IMELDA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?ERO
STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COASTLINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE SURGE OCCURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES...
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE, FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER,
SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE
HUMBERTO ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND WILL SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BLAKE
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