313
WTNT34 KNHC 290852
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
500 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025
..IMELDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...25.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, INCLUDING NEW PROVIDENCE, BERRY ISLANDS AND
ANDROS ISLAND.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, INCLUDING ELEUTHERA, THE
ABACOS, GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE SURROUNDING KEYS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IMELDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. IMELDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND A GENERALLY
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON TUESDAY, IMELDA
IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND THEN TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, MOVING
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IMELDA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM),
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM IMELDA CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO
HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA,
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA, AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING.
AS IMELDA PASSES NEAR BERMUDA, 2 TO 4 INCHES -- 50 TO 100 MM -- OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IMELDA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?ERO
STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COASTLINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE SURGE OCCURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES...
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE, FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER,
SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE
HUMBERTO ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND WILL SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BLAKE
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