017
WTNT34 KNHC 292048
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
500 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2025
..IMELDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW MORNING
..HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR ISLAND OF BERMUDA
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND
GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, INCLUDING GREAT ABACO, GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND THE SURROUNDING KEYS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IMELDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IMELDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY, IMELDA
IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START
MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BUT
APPROACHING THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECASTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND IMELDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
TUESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB (29.12 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM IMELDA CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO
HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING IN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA,
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA, AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING.
AS IMELDA PASSES NEAR BERMUDA, 2 TO 4 INCHES – 50 TO 100 MM – OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IMELDA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?ERO
STORM SURGE: A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COASTLINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE SURGE OCCURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES...
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE, FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER,
SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM IMELDA AND HURRICANE
HUMBERTO ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING TO
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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