076
ABPZ20 KNHC 300535
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2025
FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF 180 LONGITUDE:
WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA (EP98):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA HAVE INCREASED SOME DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST
OF MEXICO.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.
FORECASTER JELSEMA
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