648
WTPZ45 KNHC 300833
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2025
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
BAND. IN ADDITION, A RECENT 0355 UTC METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF 30-KT WIND BARBS. AS A
RESULT, THE SYSTEM HAS MET THE CRITERIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.0/30 KT AND 2.5/35 KT, RESPECTIVELY. BASED
ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
FIFTEEN-E IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR
295 DEGREES AT 4 KT. THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A WEAK LOW TO THE NORTH
OF FIFTEEN-E ERODES THE RIDGE, WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A BUILDING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STEER
FIFTEEN-E WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS AID.
FIFTEEN-E WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT MODERATE TO STRONG
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HINDER
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND FIFTEEN-E IS EXPECTED TO REACH
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY SOME
MODEST STRENGTHENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX SLIGHTLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND
REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSEST TO A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND HCCA INTENSITY AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 9.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 9.8N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 10.8N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 11.8N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 12.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 13.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 13.5N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 15.0N 120.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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