682
WTNT43 KNHC 301444
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2025
HUMBERTO IS QUICKLY DECOUPLING. STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS EXPOSED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION STILL PRESENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE JUST COMPLETED THEIR FINAL MISSION INTO
HUMBERTO, FINDING PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 77 KT AND A RISING
CENTRAL MINIMUM PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 70 KT.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 340/16 KT. HUMBERTO IS
EXPECT TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE HURRICANE MERGES WITH A LARGE MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST, LARGELY
DUE TO THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION.
HUMBERTO SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS TRANSITION WILL
OCCUR SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW
SHOWS HUMBERTO AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD IMELDA AND LOSE ITS CLOSED
CIRCULATION. THE HURRICANE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC, WHERE
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BEACHES ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS, INCLUDING HIGH SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BEACHES OF
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 33.0N 69.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 34.8N 69.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 36.2N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0000Z 37.0N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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