979
WTNT43 KNHC 010855
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
500 AM AST WED OCT 01 2025
GOES-19 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF
HUMBERTO HAS STARTED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH
THE CONVECTION OUTRUNNING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH LONGER
FOR HUMBERTO'S CENTER TO BE EXPOSED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS
RANGE FROM 55-77 KT, WHILE RECENT UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RANGING A BIT LOWER FROM 53-63 KT. EARLIER
ASCAT DATA HAD 61-KT RETRIEVALS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, OR 055/12 KT.
AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. A LONGWAVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF HUMBERTO IS QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND
IS STARTING TO IMPINGE UPON THE HURRICANE'S CIRCULATION. THE
RESULTING INTERACTION IS CAUSING A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO EXTEND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM CLOSE TO THE CYCLONE CENTER.
GIVEN RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT HUMBERTO
WILL BECOME FULLY FRONTAL, AND THUS EXTRATROPICAL, LATER THIS
MORNING. AFTER THAT, THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE
CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ELONGATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
HURRICANES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
WHERE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFFECTING BEACHES THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS, INCLUDING HIGH SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BEACHES OF
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, AND MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 35.8N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 36.4N 64.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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