310
WTPZ45 KNHC 011452
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT WED OCT 01 2025
OCTAVE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH A BANDING FEATURE ALSO
NOTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET
AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.
OBJECTIVE DVORAK AND MICROWAVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THAT VALUE.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, OR AROUND 325/7 KT.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, A TURN TO THE NORTH INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED. AROUND DAY 5, OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO
TURN EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A MOIST
MID- TO LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT IN 2-3 DAYS, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING, AND THE SYSTEM COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME
A HURRICANE. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE SUGGESTS THAT
IT COULD ALSO BE MORE RESPONSIVE TO LESS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS IN THE
FUTURE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE
AND LIES MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER PORTION OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 11.6N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 12.1N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 12.6N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 13.1N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 13.7N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 14.2N 121.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 14.9N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 15.9N 123.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 16.5N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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