214
WTPZ45 KNHC 012043
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2025
IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION, THE STORM HAS BEEN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY
SINCE EARLIER TODAY. DEEP CONVECTION IS STRONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH TOPS TO AROUND -70 DEG C
WITH LIMITED BANDING FEATURES AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIMITED
ELSEWHERE, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS BEING AFFECTED BY SOME EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 55
KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND
CLOSE TO AN AI-OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS.
OCTAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT
ABOUT 305/7 KT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. AROUND THE END OF THE
PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A LARGER
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS, TVCN.
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AFFECT OCTAVE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. THE SHEAR COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT BY
72 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR SOME STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM'S
CIRCULATION PROBABLY MAKES IT MORE RESPONSIVE TO POTENTIALLY LESS
CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS IN THE FUTURE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS,
IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 12.0N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.4N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 12.9N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.3N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 13.8N 120.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 14.4N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 14.9N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 15.6N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 16.0N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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