622
WTPZ45 KNHC 021438
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2025
OCTAVE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTHEAST.
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION, WITH SOME
LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES
TO BE IMPEDED TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. OBJECTIVE VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 49
TO 54 KT AT THIS TIME.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 285/7 KT. OCTAVE
IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIMETER OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD
IN AROUND 72 HOURS. A GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS OCTAVE BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
CORRECTED DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS MODEL, HCCA, TRACK.
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
OCTAVE WILL ABATE IN A FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES
MARGINALLY WARM OCEAN WATERS. THUS, THERE IS A RELATIVELY SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST,
WHICH IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 12.5N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 12.8N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 13.3N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 13.8N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 14.4N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 15.0N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 15.3N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 15.9N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.0N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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