977
WTPZ45 KNHC 022039
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2025
OCTAVE CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED BY STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THERE IS A RATHER SHARP EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS NEAR THIS EASTERN EDGE. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
ARE NOT VERY WELL DEFINED AND THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE INHIBITED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KT BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS AND THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.
CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
OR 285/7 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS OR SO,
OCTAVE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO BECOME DRAWN INTO A LARGER
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE ALSO SIMILAR
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS PREDICTION.
DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER OCTAVE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO LESSEN
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT DRIER BY THAT
TIME AND THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF OCTAVE COULD
ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING AROUND DAY 3, HOWEVER IT IS ABOVE MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 12.7N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.0N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 13.5N 121.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 14.0N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.6N 123.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 15.0N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 15.3N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 15.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 15.7N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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