101
WTPZ45 KNHC 030247
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2025
OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE IN A DELICATE STATE THIS EVENING. HINTS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARED ON THE LAST-LIGHT GOES VISIBLE
IMAGERY WHILE THE AFTERNOON'S DECAYING CONVECTION DRIFTED WESTWARD.
HOWEVER, A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTER. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED RATHER STEADY. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT, REPRESENTING A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB
DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER OCTAVE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. BY DAY 3, THE STORM SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD FOLLOWED BY
A SHARP TURN TO THE EAST AS IT MOVES IN THE WAKE OF A STRONGER
TROPICAL CYCLONE (INVEST 99) OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS
ALSO SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS PREDICTION.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF. IF
OCTAVE CAN MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STATE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO ABATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 48 TO 72
H, FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. THE NEAR-TERM PREDICTION LIES ON
THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BLENDS CLOSER TO THE
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID, HCCA, BY THE MID-TO-LATTER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 12.9N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 13.2N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 13.8N 121.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 14.4N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 14.8N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 15.2N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 15.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 15.7N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 15.4N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
FORECASTER BUCCI
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