620
WTPZ45 KNHC 040233
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2025
OCTAVE STILL HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.
INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, ISOLATED BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY FORMING WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.
THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS FROM EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON THAT HAD A FRAGMENTED CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF OCTAVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 50 KT, REPRESENTING A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT RANGE BETWEEN 39 TO 55 KT.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KT.
OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SOON, FOLLOWED BY
A NORTHWARD MOTION ON SUNDAY WITH A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST WEAKENS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD, BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS QUITE LARGE BY THE MIDDLE-TO-LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS BECAUSE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH OCTAVE
WILL INTERACT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND HOW
QUICKLY A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE (INVEST 99-E) WILL ORGANIZE. THE
ONLY CHANGES TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST ARE THAT IT LIES
SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE FIRST 36 H,
DUE THE DELAYED TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER THE CYCLONE WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT A DAY. MOST OF THE
RELIABLE MODELS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING OCTAVE BECOMING A HURRICANE.
BY 48 H, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MUCH
LARGER SYSTEM TO ITS EAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 123.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.8N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.5N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 15.7N 123.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 15.5N 121.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 15.0N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 14.8N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER BUCCI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page