513
WTPZ45 KNHC 040841
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2025
OCTAVE IS STILL TRYING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING, AS
SHEAR STARTS TO DECREASE OVER THE SYSTEM. IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGES, A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS STARTED TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS
NEAR -80 C. HOWEVER, RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS DEPICTED PEAK
WINDS OF ONLY 34 KT, ALTHOUGH IT DID NOT SAMPLE THE CONVECTIVE BAND
TO THE WEST. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE HELD STEADY AND RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT. USING A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES AND THE LOWER SATELLITE DERIVED WIND SPEEDS, THE INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 290/7
KT. OCTAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN ON SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. IN ABOUT 48 H, THERE CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IT IS DUE TO
HOW MUCH INTERACTION OCCURS WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE (INVEST 99E) TO THE EAST. THE LATEST
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS IN THE SHORT-TERM, BUT
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE EASTWARD MOTION CLOSEST TO THE HCCA AND
GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTIONS.
WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED TO DECREASE OVER THE SYSTEM, WITH MARGINALLY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 27 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THUS, SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
BY 48 H, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND A
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MUCH LARGER
SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS,
SHOWING SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH A LOWER PEAK
INTENSITY AND LIES NEAR THE SIMPLE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 14.2N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.6N 123.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.2N 124.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.6N 123.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 15.9N 121.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 15.5N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 15.0N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 15.6N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page