622
ABPZ20 KNHC 041138
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2025
FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF 180 LONGITUDE:
ACTIVE SYSTEMS:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE, LOCATED IN THE EAST PACIFIC, WELL TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO (EP99):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. IF CURRENT TRENDS
PERSIST, ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE INITIATED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, INCLUDING GALE WARNINGS,
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, NEAR OR PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...MEDIUM...50 PERCENT.
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON
THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP
FORECASTER HOGSETT
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