301
WTPZ45 KNHC 041444
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2025
OCTAVE'S OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS REMAINED STEADY THIS MORNING, WITH
ITS CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. A RECENT AMSR-2 MICROWAVE PASS ALSO INDICATES THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM IS MAINTAINING A WELL-ORGANIZED STRUCTURE, WITH
CURVED BANDS APPARENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A BLEND OF
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND THE
PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, SUPPORT A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 310/6
KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING A
NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD TURN LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE EASTWARD TURN IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, AS IT DEPENDS ON THE INTERACTION OF OCTAVE WITH INVEST
99E TO ITS EAST AND A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY AND REPRESENTS A
BLEND OF TRACK CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE FASTER GOOGLE DEEPMIND
SOLUTION.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24 H.
WITHIN THIS NARROW WINDOW OF TIME, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, AFTER 24 H AS OCTAVE TURNS TOWARD THE EAST, WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE STORM INTERACTS WITH THE MUCH LARGER
SYSTEM TO ITS EAST. LATE THIS WEEKEND, OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
A WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PRIOR ADVISORY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND IT REMAINS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 14.6N 123.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 15.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.5N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.9N 123.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.0N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 16.0N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 15.7N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 15.2N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 16.2N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
FORECASTER HOGSETT
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