627
WTPZ31 KNHC 042032
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM MST SAT OCT 04 2025
...A LARGE TROPICAL STORM, PRISCILLA, FORMS OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 106.6W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA, MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST. PRISCILLA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A SLOW,
GENERALLY NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
FASTER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF AND
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRISCILLA IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM, WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM) FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM PRISCILLA WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MICHOACáN AND FAR WESTERN GUERRERO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES.
ACROSS COLIMA, WESTERN JALISCO, AND THE REST OF GUERRERO ALONG THE
COAST, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING
A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA BY MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.
FORECASTER BERG
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