248
WTPZ45 KNHC 042040
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2025
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO PULSE TODAY NEAR THE CENTER OF
OCTAVE. RECENT VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
WELL-ORGANIZED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE, WHICH WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE
PRESENTATION AND A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 55 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND IS NOW MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 330/5 KT. A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD AND EVENTUAL EASTWARD TURN IS FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDS SOMEWHAT ON
THE INTERACTION OF OCTAVE WITH TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA TO ITS EAST
AND A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY
AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF TRACK CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND SOLUTION.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24 H.
DURING THIS PERIOD, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, AFTER 24 H AS
OCTAVE TURNS TOWARD THE EAST, WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
THE STORM INTERACTS WITH TROUGH AND THE LARGER TROPICAL STORM TO
ITS EAST. LATE THIS WEEKEND, OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES
AFTER 96 H. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PRIOR ADVISORY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND IT REMAINS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 14.9N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.3N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.7N 123.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 15.9N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 16.0N 121.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 15.8N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 15.5N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 15.3N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HOGSETT
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