361
WTPZ45 KNHC 050239
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2025
OCTAVE'S ORGANIZATION HAS HELD RELATIVELY STEADY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO BURST THROUGH A
MODESTLY-SIZED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AN EARLIER AMSR2 37 GHZ
OVERPASS SHOWED A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 42 KT TO 65 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 55 KT REPRESENTING A BLEND OF THESE VALUES.
THE STORM IS STILL SLOWING MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 4 KT. A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED SHORTLY, FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATED
EASTWARD MOTION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. MUCH OF THIS TRACK PREDICTION
DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA, LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES TO THE EAST OF OCTAVE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST DUE TO A MORE
NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION AND LIES BETWEEN HCCA AND THE GOOGLE DEEP
MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
OCTAVE HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF 18-24 HOURS WITH RELATIVELY CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW OCTAVE TO STRENGTHEN. BY
MONDAY, INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISRUPT
OCTAVE'S CIRCULATION AND INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. OCTAVE
IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL INTENSITY
PREDICTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 15.4N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 15.8N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.2N 123.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 16.2N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.1N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 15.9N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 15.5N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 15.6N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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